Valuations 101: Scorecard Valuation Methodology

Bill Payne , Angel Investor , Frontier Angel Fund

20 Oct 2011

Individual accredited investors in typical angel round deals put personal capital at risk for an equity share of growth-oriented, start-up companies. These angel investors generally invest $25,000 to $100,000 in a round totaling $250,000 to $1,000,000. In 2011, the valuation of pre-revenue, start-up companies is typically in the range of $1.5–$2.5 million and is established by negotiations between the entrepreneur and the angel investors. For this round of investment, the angels collectively purchase 20–40% of the equity of the company and are seeking a return on investment of 20–30X in a period of five to eight years.

Active angels invest in a diversified portfolio of 10 or more companies, usually spreading their investments over a few years. Experience proves that half of these companies will fail (returning nothing or less than capital invested), another 3–4 will provide a modest return on investment of 1X to 5X and one or hopefully two of the ten companies will return 10X to 30X on the initial investment over a five to eight year period of time. In the end, such a portfolio might yield the angel investor a total return on investment of 25% per year or more. These anticipated outcomes were validated by “Returns to Angels in Groups” by Professor Rob Wiltbank in November 2007.

Angels typically invest in companies operating in industry sectors with which they are familiar. Diversification across industry sectors is not as easily achieved for angels as could be accomplished in public markets, but can be achieved by co-investing with trusted angel colleagues in a broader set of businesses. A local network of angels is critical to achieving a diversified portfolio. Working within a network of angel investors also expands the pool of expert resources and helps divide the work of screening companies and investment due diligence. Furthermore, angel groups frequently syndicate (co-invest) with neighboring angel organizations in an effort to help fill round of investment for local companies and assist members in diversifying their portfolios with investments in nearby regions.

To achieve a satisfactory return on investment, the angel’s portfolio must contain one or two companies which return 20–30X on the initial investment. It is, of course, impossible to predict at the outset which of these portfolio companies will be successful and which will fail. It is necessary, then, that each investment in the angel portfolio demonstrates the potential to scale sufficiently to provide a 20-30X return on investment. Including a substantial number of investments with smaller opportunities only reduces the possible return on the entire portfolio.

Gust Launch can set your startup right so its investment ready.

SETUP RIGHT

Scorecard Valuation Methodology

This method compares the target company to typical angel-funded startup ventures and adjusts the average valuation of recently funded companies in the region to establish a pre-money valuation of the target. Such comparisons can only be made for companies at the same stage of development, in this case, for pre-revenue startup ventures.

The first step in using the Scorecard Method is to determine the average pre-money valuation of pre-revenue companies in the region and business sector of the target company. Pre-money valuation varies with the economy and with the competitive environment for startup ventures within a region. In most regions, the pre-money valuation does not vary significantly from one business sector to another. Earlier this month, I reported on the most current survey of angel groups: 2011 Valuation Survey of North American Angel Groups.

As can be seen the average (mean) pre-money valuation for recent pre-revenue deals is $2.1 million and the mode (middle number) for this data set is $2.0 million, indicating a somewhat normal distribution. The range of the data is from a low pre-money valuation of $0.8 million to a high of $3.4 million for pre-revenue companies.

We also have data points for VC investments in seed/startup companies (but not necessarily pre-revenue companies). The following chart from Dow Jones VentureSource shows very little variation in pre-money valuation of VC seed stage deals over the past decade. Average annual pre-money valuations have been just over $2 million during this period.

For purposes of this study, we will assume that the pre-money valuation of pre-revenue companies varies in the range of $1.5–2.5 million and that the average pre-money valuation for these firms is $2.0 million.

The next step in determining the pre-money valuation of pre-revenue companies using the Scorecard Method is to compare the target company to your perception of similar deals done in your region, considering the following factors:

• 0–30% Strength of the Management Team
• 0–25% Size of the Opportunity
• 0–15% Product/Technology
• 0–10% Competitive Environment
• 0–10% Marketing/Sales Channels/Partnerships
• 0–5%  Need for Additional Investment
• 0–5%  Other

A Valuation Worksheet is provided in the appendix to this document to assist readers in judging the relative strength of target companies for the above categories.

The subjective ranking of factors (above) is typical for investor appraisal of startup ventures. Some are surprised to find that investor rankings of product and technology are below those of the management team and the size of the opportunity. In building a business, the quality of the team is paramount to success. A great team will fix early product flaws, but the reverse is not true. And, as has been discussed earlier, scalability is critical to investor returns. Good product and intellectual property are important, but the quality of the team is key.

MAKING THE VALUATION CALCULATION

To provide an example, assume a company with an average product and technology (100% of norm), a strong team (125% of norm) and a large market opportunity (150% of norm). The company can get to positive cash flow with a single angel round of investment (100% of norm).  Looking at the strength of the competition in the market, the target is weaker (75% of norm) but early customer feedback on the product is excellent (Other = 100%). The company needs some additional work on building sales channels and partnerships (80% of norm). Using this data, we can complete the following calculation:

Multiplying the Sum of Factors (1.075) times the average pre-money valuation of $2.0 million (results of survey); we arrive at a pre-money valuation for the target company of $2.15 million.

Summary

Key to the Scorecard Method is a good understanding of the average (and range) of pre-money valuation of pre-revenue companies in a region. With this data in hand, the Scorecard Method gives angels subjective techniques to adjust the valuation of a target company for seed and startup rounds of investment. Savvy entrepreneurs can use these tools to prepare for negotiations of valuation with investors.

Appendix to Scorecard Valuation Methodology

Armed with average and range of pre-money valuations for pre-revenue, start-up companies in the region, what determines where in that range is a fair valuation for a specific company?

The attached spreadsheet is an empirical Valuation Worksheet. This spreadsheet will not provide the investor with a neat and tidy dollar valuation for a pre-revenue, start-up company! This worksheet provides the investor with a basis for deciding if a start-up company should be valued near the top or bottom of the range of values that might reasonably be applied to such an early stage venture.

The worksheet is a listing of issues and factors that should be considered in judging the value of a company. Note the following features of the worksheet:

1. The major factors are listed in order of importance in valuing start-up companies.
2. Each major factor has been assigned a weighted ranking. For example, the “Strength of the management team” is worth 30% of the valuation of the company, while the “Need for subsequent funding” is ranked as only 5% of the value of the company.
3. Within each major factor, the impact of each issue has been assigned a valuation ranking from +++ (very positive) to – – – (very negative), to assist the investor in deciding the overall weighted ranking to be assigned to the valuation of a start-up company.

No two angel investors will value a company (or business plan) the same, however, with some practice, this worksheet will allow investors to compare one company to the next and assist the angel in deciding if a company’s valuation should be near the high end of a reasonable range in valuation or, on the other hand, near the bottom of the range of valuations.

Gust Launch can set your startup right so its investment ready.

SETUP RIGHT