10 Things That Make a Business Plan NOT Fundable

I really like Martin Zwilling’s post here yesterday, 10 things that make a business plan fundable. That made me think about this list, the opposite, things that make a plan not fundable. Before I start, though, I second Martin’s motion on the use of business plans:

People ask me if they really need ANY business plan, unless they are looking for an outside investor. In fact, a business plan is needed more by you than investors, as the blueprint for your company, team communication, and progress metrics. Things that make it investment-grade for outside investors will also benefit you, since you are the ultimate investor.

I liked all of Martin’s points in that post, but, since sometimes the other side of the coin is just as interesting, here’s my list of reasons why not. These are my 10 things that make business plans notfundable, in my assumed order of importance.

  1. Problems with the founders. Investors bet on people, specific people, more than on businesses, markets, ideas, or products. They want a team with startup experience except in some very rare exceptions, like technical geniuses; and even then, they are going to want to bring in people with experience.Founders with questionable character or background or behavior don’t get funded. For example, I saw a founder tell investors, during a pitch session, that  some investors screwed him and his previous partners were dishonest. And getting too aggressive too quickly is a problem.

    And a founder who fudges the truth, thinking nobody will notice, has to be very good at it, or very lucky, because when this comes out investors assume that lies never exist alone. They assume a single significant lie is a tip of an iceberg. Being wrong, by the way, happens all the time; and that’s not the same as lying.

    Sweat equity can be a problem. Founders making no money at all is a problem for many investors, because — while the bravado is impressive — it isn’t realistic over the long term. And of course founders making more than market-justified salaries is a problem too.

  2. The next [whatever]. Investors immediately mistrust “the next” Facebook, Netflix, Twitter, Instagram, or whatever. While it’s true that this happens sometimes (Google was the next Yahoo, for example) it’s extremely rare, while this kind of claim is extremely common. Big disruptive successes create new markets, they don’t copy other successes in existing markets. And being a better Facebook, Netflix, or Twitter isn’t usually convincing either, because those claims ignore the critical mass problem of getting attention with something new when something is already there and huge in the same market.
  3. Missing the problems-and-solutions story. Investors want to see the problems and solutions, for themselves, through the stories you tell about them. They really want a good story of a buyer really needing what you’re selling, and a good story means one they can evaluate themselves, and believe in. Identify a buyer and personalize the story of solving a need.
  4. Missing the market story. Sure, investors want to see your research and numbers, but believability is more important, and markets become believable when investors see them immediately in their imagination. If the needs and solution story applies to lots and lots of people, and everybody recognizes that fact, then you’ve won the investors at that point. Filling the imagined market with research numbers is good, but numbers alone don’t convince anybody.
  5. No imaginable exit.  Investors need to believe founders want to grow and then create an exit. The founders themselves don’t need to exit, but it it looks like they’ve got a beautiful business that can live and grow forever without ever needing more money, then that’s great for them but not for their investors. Investors need to believe they’ll get a return on their investment.
  6. Stupid profitability. Projecting absurdly high profits doesn’t mean it’s a profitable business; it means somebody doesn’t understand the business well enough to know its costs and expenses.
  7. Tops-down projections. Lots of plans build sales by taking a small percentage of a huge market, but that’s never convincing. Build sales on assumptions like web traffic, channels, events, sales locations, or combinations on those. The bottoms-up projections, with assumptions laid out clearly, are the only way. Martin wrote yesterday: “Avoid any statements like ‘All we have to do is get 1% of the market.’” Amen to that one.
  8. No Competition. The only businesses that have no competition are businesses that nobody wants. Even if you are as good as that implies, then you’re going to have competition after you launch.
  9. Nothing defensible. You need a secret sauce. Usually that’s some technology of your own, sometimes it’s a market position, but there has to be something to give you some barriers to keep everybody else, especially bigger and more powerful players, from jumping in on top of you.
  10. Empty broad claims. Supposedly “game changing” or “disruptive,” for example. Of the hundred or so business plans I’ve read so far this year, easily two third of them had one or the other of these claims. Fewer than five had an interesting shot at it. When a plan really is disruptive or game changing, investors will say so themselves. They want that too. But if they say so instead of you, that’s 100 times better.

While we talk about business plans being fundable, it’s not really the plan that gets funded. I agree with Martin when he writes:

The best plans are not usually the fanciest or the longest. They are not measured by the quantity of impressive graphics or the size of the revenue projections.

What people invest in is not the document, but its content and the people who will execute it.

Tim Berry , Founder, Palo Alto Software
August 7th, 2012 2

These 10 Key Elements Make a Business Plan Fundable

People ask me if they really need ANY business plan, unless they are looking for an outside investor. In fact, a business plan is needed more by you than investors, as the blueprint for your company, team communication, and progress metrics. Things that make it investment-grade for outside investors will also benefit you, since you are the ultimate investor.

First of all, any good business plan should demonstrate that you have done the homework to be an expert in your industry, and in what it takes to build a successful business from your idea. I’ll skip the basics here, and highlight only key elements that investors focus on: Read more

What is it like to lose all of your investors’ money?

I’ve been on both sides of this event, and believe me, it is not fun. But it is, unfortunately, a virtually inextricable part of the entrepreneurial life, and what matters most (at least in the US, where entrepreneurship—and even valiant failure—is celebrated rather than reviled) is how you deal with it.

I am one of the more upbeat, positive-thinking people on the planet, but when my first venture-backed company went into Chapter 11 it was perhaps the most traumatic day of my life.  I felt that I had personally failed (after what had, until that point, been a life of almost unbroken success), that despite my best efforts and a decade of non-stop work I had betrayed those who had had the faith to back my vision with their cash, and that I had let down my employees, my family and my customers. I was devastated, and felt that I would never again be able to either hold my head up, or rediscover the passion and self-confidence that are critical to success as an entrepreneur. Read more

Sideways Startups: An Investor’s Dilemma

Editor’s Note: For a great tip on unloading private stock, read this post about how you can donate it.d

One-half of angel-funded companies fail, which is why a winning Investment Strategy for Angels includes diversification. That is, to invest in several companies (rather than a few) each with the potential for home-run returns.  Amidst all the talk of failures and exits, we forget there are actually three possible outcomes for angel-backed startups.  1) Many flop (companies that do not return capital to investors) 2) some companies provide angels with an upside on their investment and 3) some companies go sideways. The latter category of investments appeared, at the time of investment, to be high-growth companies and for a variety of reasons survived, but proved to be no-growth companies –hence, sideways. Typically, angel-funded companies that are going sideways have 1-10 employees and sufficient revenues and earnings to be sustainable, but are not attractive acquisition candidates to larger companies.  Furthermore, while the company has sufficient cash flow to survive, it cannot generate enough cash to buy-out investors, even at initial investment pricing.  Most angel investors hold an ownership position in a few companies that have no exit opportunity. Read more

Bill Payne , Angel Investor , Frontier Angel Fund
July 31st, 2012 1

How to Reduce Your Budget and Reduce Startup Risk

One of the biggest myths I still see in the community of new entrepreneurs is the assumption that “All I need is a good idea, and some investor will give me the big money I need to build the business.” In reality, investors fund good business plans, not big dreams. It’s all in the execution.

A related myth is that it takes a lot of money to start a business. Investment requests of $500K and $1M seem to be the most popular. In reality, most business today can be built and reach breakeven for much less than these amounts, maybe $10K-$50K, with the exception of some medical related ones, and high technology content solutions. Read more

Is the J-curve a myth?

It very definitely exists, but under two specific constraints: (1) we need to be talking about ‘traditional’ venture funds, and (2) we need to limit the discussion to the top half/top quartile funds that actually make money.

(Below is an example of the traditional J-Curve)

The unbelievably seismic changes resulting from exponentially advancing technology mean that the ‘traditional’ venture world is rapidly giving way to a new world of micro-VC, “super angel”, early-stage seed funds, which have very different economics. With many of today’s web-based startups, a relatively small amount of funding up-front, combined with rapid development time, a non-existent IPO market for smaller companies, and an insatiable acquisition appetite from larger companies means that companies are both failing faster and exiting faster, by almost an order of magnitude, than was previously the case.  Because of this, the new breed of seed and early-stage funds are in many cases completely bypassing the down-swing of the J curve.

On the other hand, the sad fact is that the majority of traditional venture funds formed in the past decade have simply not made enough money to return a profit to their investors. In those cases, the down-swing of the J curve is very real, but they are missing the up-swing. This is because the lack of an IPO market means that unless they were fortunate enough to be in Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Instagram or a couple of other mega-home-runs, they simply have not had enough large-scale positive exits to get back north of the baseline.

*original post can be found on Quora @ : http://www.quora.com/David-S-Rose/answers *

Control Depends More on Results Than Term Sheets

Fred Wilson of Union Ventures writes Entrepreneurs Have Control When Things Work, VCs Have Control When They Don’t on his AVC blog.

This is one of those ideas that seem completely obvious but only after I’ve heard them. Whether we’re founders or investors, we focus on terms and percentages as determining control. But in the real world, as Fred points out, strength and power are about who holds what cards, and who needs whom. He says: 

An entrepreneur or hired CEO can own as little as 5-10% of a Company but they can control it like a dictator if they are doing a great job running the business and the company is making a lot of cash flow and has no need for additional capital.

An entrepreneur can control 95% of a company and all the seats on the board but they can easily lose control of the business if they company is floundering and they need more money and the only investors who would consider putting up money are the existing investors.

Exactly. 

I’m not suggesting either investors or founders get glib about it and pretend the terms aren’t extremely important. You have to do your job. It’s just that, on the other hand, when you think of all those stories about investors wresting control from founders, many of those stories are true. But ask yourself: were those companies doing well? 

Tim Berry , Founder, Palo Alto Software
July 25th, 2012 1