Do most angel investors make money?

The reality is that results in angel investing tend to bifurcate:

“Professional” angel investors, who are investing calmly, steadily, relatively-rationally, over a long period of time and with a strong knowledge of both investment math and early stage realities, tend to not only make money, but do quite well: the average return for a comprehensive, well-managed angel portfolio is between 25% and 30% IRR.

On the other hand, the large majority of self-described “angel investors”, both domestically in the US and internationally, would not fall into this category. That is because they are either new to the field, not taking it seriously as a financial business, not in it for the long haul, or not willing to continue investing until they have a fully diversified investment portfolio. For those people, returns tend to be flat to mostly negative.

*original post can be found on Quora @ : http://www.quora.com/David-S-Rose/answers *

10 Things That Make a Business Plan NOT Fundable

I really like Martin Zwilling’s post here yesterday, 10 things that make a business plan fundable. That made me think about this list, the opposite, things that make a plan not fundable. Before I start, though, I second Martin’s motion on the use of business plans:

People ask me if they really need ANY business plan, unless they are looking for an outside investor. In fact, a business plan is needed more by you than investors, as the blueprint for your company, team communication, and progress metrics. Things that make it investment-grade for outside investors will also benefit you, since you are the ultimate investor.

I liked all of Martin’s points in that post, but, since sometimes the other side of the coin is just as interesting, here’s my list of reasons why not. These are my 10 things that make business plans notfundable, in my assumed order of importance.

  1. Problems with the founders. Investors bet on people, specific people, more than on businesses, markets, ideas, or products. They want a team with startup experience except in some very rare exceptions, like technical geniuses; and even then, they are going to want to bring in people with experience.Founders with questionable character or background or behavior don’t get funded. For example, I saw a founder tell investors, during a pitch session, that  some investors screwed him and his previous partners were dishonest. And getting too aggressive too quickly is a problem.

    And a founder who fudges the truth, thinking nobody will notice, has to be very good at it, or very lucky, because when this comes out investors assume that lies never exist alone. They assume a single significant lie is a tip of an iceberg. Being wrong, by the way, happens all the time; and that’s not the same as lying.

    Sweat equity can be a problem. Founders making no money at all is a problem for many investors, because — while the bravado is impressive — it isn’t realistic over the long term. And of course founders making more than market-justified salaries is a problem too.

  2. The next [whatever]. Investors immediately mistrust “the next” Facebook, Netflix, Twitter, Instagram, or whatever. While it’s true that this happens sometimes (Google was the next Yahoo, for example) it’s extremely rare, while this kind of claim is extremely common. Big disruptive successes create new markets, they don’t copy other successes in existing markets. And being a better Facebook, Netflix, or Twitter isn’t usually convincing either, because those claims ignore the critical mass problem of getting attention with something new when something is already there and huge in the same market.
  3. Missing the problems-and-solutions story. Investors want to see the problems and solutions, for themselves, through the stories you tell about them. They really want a good story of a buyer really needing what you’re selling, and a good story means one they can evaluate themselves, and believe in. Identify a buyer and personalize the story of solving a need.
  4. Missing the market story. Sure, investors want to see your research and numbers, but believability is more important, and markets become believable when investors see them immediately in their imagination. If the needs and solution story applies to lots and lots of people, and everybody recognizes that fact, then you’ve won the investors at that point. Filling the imagined market with research numbers is good, but numbers alone don’t convince anybody.
  5. No imaginable exit.  Investors need to believe founders want to grow and then create an exit. The founders themselves don’t need to exit, but it it looks like they’ve got a beautiful business that can live and grow forever without ever needing more money, then that’s great for them but not for their investors. Investors need to believe they’ll get a return on their investment.
  6. Stupid profitability. Projecting absurdly high profits doesn’t mean it’s a profitable business; it means somebody doesn’t understand the business well enough to know its costs and expenses.
  7. Tops-down projections. Lots of plans build sales by taking a small percentage of a huge market, but that’s never convincing. Build sales on assumptions like web traffic, channels, events, sales locations, or combinations on those. The bottoms-up projections, with assumptions laid out clearly, are the only way. Martin wrote yesterday: “Avoid any statements like ‘All we have to do is get 1% of the market.’” Amen to that one.
  8. No Competition. The only businesses that have no competition are businesses that nobody wants. Even if you are as good as that implies, then you’re going to have competition after you launch.
  9. Nothing defensible. You need a secret sauce. Usually that’s some technology of your own, sometimes it’s a market position, but there has to be something to give you some barriers to keep everybody else, especially bigger and more powerful players, from jumping in on top of you.
  10. Empty broad claims. Supposedly “game changing” or “disruptive,” for example. Of the hundred or so business plans I’ve read so far this year, easily two third of them had one or the other of these claims. Fewer than five had an interesting shot at it. When a plan really is disruptive or game changing, investors will say so themselves. They want that too. But if they say so instead of you, that’s 100 times better.

While we talk about business plans being fundable, it’s not really the plan that gets funded. I agree with Martin when he writes:

The best plans are not usually the fanciest or the longest. They are not measured by the quantity of impressive graphics or the size of the revenue projections.

What people invest in is not the document, but its content and the people who will execute it.

Tim Berry , Founder, Palo Alto Software
August 7th, 2012 2

Is the J-curve a myth?

It very definitely exists, but under two specific constraints: (1) we need to be talking about ‘traditional’ venture funds, and (2) we need to limit the discussion to the top half/top quartile funds that actually make money.

(Below is an example of the traditional J-Curve)

The unbelievably seismic changes resulting from exponentially advancing technology mean that the ‘traditional’ venture world is rapidly giving way to a new world of micro-VC, “super angel”, early-stage seed funds, which have very different economics. With many of today’s web-based startups, a relatively small amount of funding up-front, combined with rapid development time, a non-existent IPO market for smaller companies, and an insatiable acquisition appetite from larger companies means that companies are both failing faster and exiting faster, by almost an order of magnitude, than was previously the case.  Because of this, the new breed of seed and early-stage funds are in many cases completely bypassing the down-swing of the J curve.

On the other hand, the sad fact is that the majority of traditional venture funds formed in the past decade have simply not made enough money to return a profit to their investors. In those cases, the down-swing of the J curve is very real, but they are missing the up-swing. This is because the lack of an IPO market means that unless they were fortunate enough to be in Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Instagram or a couple of other mega-home-runs, they simply have not had enough large-scale positive exits to get back north of the baseline.

*original post can be found on Quora @ : http://www.quora.com/David-S-Rose/answers *

Will the most successful crowdfunding portals be restricted to accredited investors?

This is an interesting question, and one to which no one really has an answer yet. To some extent it will depend on what the SEC decides to do with the regulations surrounding the whole subject, which they have until the end of the year to write.

My personal guess is that the early stage funding world will likely trifurcate (or even quadricate, if that’s a word) into several distinct groups. In each of the groups, there will probably be the usual breakdown of the industry leader, the significant #2, and the rest of the pack. At the moment, my guess is that it will shake out as follows (and I absolutely reserve my right to come back and edit this answer as things begin to play out, so that I’ll always be right!

1) Non-equity, creative project crowdfunding portals, which are currently allowed and are not subject to legislation under the JOBS Act. I think that Kickstarter has clearly taken the lead here, with Indiegogo being the fast follower, and many others doing decent business in specialized industries or geographic regions. I believe this is likely to continue, and that at least the two leaders will be very successful.

2) Pure-play equity crowdfunding portals as directly envisioned by the JOBS Act. By definition, none of these are operational yet because they won’t be legal until the beginning of 2013, but there sure are a lot of folks throwing their hats into the ring here. I wouldn’t even hazard a guess in this group until we see who the players are, with their particular wrinkles and implementations. It’s going to be very crowded, very noisy, and probably not very lucrative for the funders (although it will likely put quite a bit of cash into new startups.) But I don’t doubt that there will be a couple of these portals that will do very well, garner significant investment, and pull away from the crowd.

3) Hybrid equity crowdfunding portals, probably registering under the JOBS Act, but using alternative/creative ways to structure the investments that will aim to make this a serious, viable funding path for high-growth companies. This is going to be an interesting area, because it will appear (I think) to be a lot less sexy than Group 2, but will turn out to be the part of crowdfunding that actually works. My first bet in this area would be Seedrs, a startup based in the UK (but founded by an American securities lawyer) that has been very involved in the legislative process so far, and really understands how the equity markets work. I know of at least one other hybrid platform that’s coming from some similarly experienced players, and my guess is that there will be still others entering this tranche. Almost by definition, however, they will be taking it in cautious steps.

4) Accredited Investor funding portals, which may or may not register under the JOBS Act, but will restrict themselves to the exempt, upper part of the market. The two obvious players in this space are Gust and AngelList, but at this point I think it’s still unclear how both companies will end up playing their hands (and yes, I say that as the CEO of the former). The choice as I see it will come down to whether the portals become fully registered Broker/Dealers and actively facilitate financings for a percentage of the raise; or whether they remain platforms for discovery and ancillary activities, but not transactions, basing their business models on other aspects of the investor/entrepreneur relationship.  At the current time, both platforms seem to be taking the latter approach, but it’s still very early in the game. And just in case you couldn’t guess, yes, I think that both of these will be very, very successful.

*original post can be found on Quora @ : http://www.quora.com/David-S-Rose/answers *

“Bored” of Directors Can Become Clash of Titans

Rhetoric has the power to engage or alienate, to enchant or disaffect.  Perhaps no better example exists than the term “Corporate Governance.”  Even the wonkiest law geeks like me find our eyes glazing over as soon as the term is mentioned.  Yet I’ve rarely seen entrepreneurs more fired up than when recounting war stories of startups whose founders had control of the company wrested from them, were forced to take financing or compensation deals on outrageously onerous terms, or worst of all, fired from their own companies.  Framed that way, “corporate governance” starts seeming a lot less dry and academic.  It’s probably no coincidence that one of the questions I get most often from founder is “How do I keep control of my company?” Read more

Antone Johnson , Founding Principal, Bottom Line Law Group
July 18th, 2012 3

Investors Don’t Know What They Want

Take a step back and be objective, and U.S. angel investors are hardly a diverse group. Not demographically diverse (sadly, we’re mostly older white men) but in opinions, preferences, and what we want in a deal, for sure.

I strongly recommend a quick tour of the ‘what investors want‘ collection of videos on this site. You’ll find 22 very short videos taken from interviews of some very thoughtful, successful, and influential investors. It’s a bit like an angel investor role call.

What reminded me of diversity was how I was struck yesterday by one of these in which one of the angel investors values certainty very highly. It’s s very short snippet, but the active quote is … 

They can have a great idea. They can have a lot of support behind them, but are they certain about what they’re saying? That certainty is a critical component of what credibility is.

That’s a direct quote from a seasoned, intelligent, and articulate investor included in this series. And it reminds me that I don’t like people who project certainty forward into the future. I respect people who respect uncertainty. Give me conviction, comfort with risk, the ability to move forward … but add to that flexibility to recognize uncertainty is a given and to move quickly to react to changes. 

If you’re an entrepreneur looking for funding I seriously recommend you take the half an hour or so and listen to every one of these 22 snippets. Few of them are even a minute long, all of them are substantial. 

Tim Berry , Founder, Palo Alto Software
July 17th, 2012 0

Copywrong Again: Founding the Next Pinterest or Napster?

As I wrote in Part I of this post, many of the most creative and disruptive startup businesses in recent years have involved the use of intellectual property in innovative, non-traditional ways that defy easy categorization and stretch the boundaries of concepts such as the fair use doctrine in copyright. When presented with a product or service in development, we often have to admit that there is no clear precedent and look for the best analogous situation to assess legal risk.  Is Instapaper like collecting press clippings?  (If so, do you have to buy a copy of each paper first?)  Is pinning a photo or article on Pinterest more akin to showing someone an article in a magazine you’ve bought or actually making and handing them a copy?  Does using a friend’s name or photo in a Facebook “Sponsored Story” (e.g., “David S. Rose likes Gust. Click thumbs up to Like it too”) more closely resemble a personal recommendation by that friend to buy the product, or plastering the friend’s photo on the product packaging in stores?

Read more

Antone Johnson , Founding Principal, Bottom Line Law Group
July 3rd, 2012 4